The Great Real Estate Reset Has Begun

The housing market just hit a wall. Pending home sales reached their lowest point on record this January, and agents are leaving the industry faster than we’ve seen since 2013. I’ve been watching this market for over a decade, and what’s happening now isn’t just another cycle.

It’s a reset.

Let me be clear: this isn’t about scaring you. It’s about preparing you for what’s coming and showing you exactly where the opportunities lie when everyone else is paralyzed by uncertainty.

The Cold, Hard Numbers Nobody Wants to Face

The statistics tell a brutal story. Record-low pending home sales across the country. New single-family home sales plummeting, especially in the Northeast and Midwest where harsh winter conditions compounded already challenging market dynamics. All-cash purchases—traditionally a strong indicator of market health—have declined significantly, though they still represent about a third of all transactions.

But here’s what fascinates me: while national trends point downward, the West is showing slight increases in home sales. These regional variations reveal something critical about what’s really happening.

This isn’t a uniform collapse. It’s a realignment.

After coaching thousands of real estate agents, I’ve noticed that periods of market stress don’t actually destroy opportunity—they redistribute it. The question isn’t whether deals will happen; it’s who will be positioned to capture them.

Why Most Agents Are Getting This Wrong

I constantly hear agents blaming their struggles on “the bad market.” They point to high mortgage rates, elevated home prices, and lack of inventory as insurmountable obstacles.

These are real challenges, but they’re not the full story.

What many agents miss is that difficult markets don’t eliminate transactions—they change who gets to facilitate them. When the NAR’s legal challenges and market pressures are pushing agents out of the business, it’s creating a vacuum that savvy professionals can fill.

The decline in full-time agents—now at its lowest level since 2013—isn’t just a statistic. It’s a massive opportunity for those who adapt quickly.

I’ve watched this pattern repeat throughout my career. When the herd thins, the remaining professionals capture larger market share. It’s not that business disappears—it concentrates.

What This Market Shift Really Means For You

If you’re waiting for conditions to “return to normal,” you’re making a strategic error. The combination of persistent high mortgage rates, elevated home prices, and changing buyer behavior isn’t temporary—it’s transformative.

After studying market cycles for years, I believe we’re not witnessing a brief downturn but rather a fundamental restructuring of how real estate transactions happen. The agents who recognize this shift early will thrive while others continue fighting yesterday’s battles.

Consider the decline in all-cash purchases. Some analysts see this as purely negative, but I see it differently. Cash buyers haven’t disappeared—they’ve become more selective. They’re waiting for motivated sellers, distressed properties, and value opportunities that inevitably emerge in transitional markets.

This creates a premium on agents who can identify and access these off-market opportunities before they hit the MLS.

Where I See The Market Heading Next

Based on current trends and historical patterns, here’s what I believe is coming:

First, we’ll see continued consolidation among real estate professionals. The exodus of part-time and marginally committed agents will accelerate, leaving more business for those who remain.

Second, regional divergence will increase. Markets with strong job growth, relative affordability, and lifestyle advantages will recover faster than others. The slight increases we’re seeing in Western markets may be early indicators of this pattern.

Third, transaction complexity will increase. With traditional financing more difficult to secure, we’ll see more creative financing arrangements, seller concessions, and multi-step transactions. This creates value for agents who can solve complex problems rather than just list properties.

Finally, I expect a strategic reset in pricing expectations. Many sellers are still anchored to 2021-2022 price points that reflected anomalous conditions. As this reality sets in, we’ll see more realistic pricing and increased transaction volume—though likely not until late 2024.

Smart Agents Are Already Making These Moves

While average agents complain about the market, elite performers in my coaching program are adapting their approach in specific ways:

They’re doubling down on their sphere of influence rather than chasing cold leads. When transactions are scarce, personal connections and trust become exponentially more valuable.

They’re becoming market educators, not just salespeople. Clients need guidance through uncertainty more than ever before. The agents who can clearly explain market conditions and options are winning the limited business available.

They’re focusing on specific niches rather than trying to serve everyone. Specialization creates perceived expertise, which commands premium fees even in challenging markets.

Most importantly, they’re investing in skills and systems now, when others are cutting back. They recognize that the gap between average and exceptional agents widens during difficult markets.

The Path Forward Isn’t What You Think

If you’ve been in real estate more than a few years, you’ve heard the standard advice for down markets: prospect more, cut expenses, wait it out.

That conventional wisdom is outdated for this new reality.

The real opportunity isn’t just surviving until things “get better”—it’s positioning yourself as one of the fewer, better-equipped agents who will serve the transformed market.

This isn’t just another cycle. It’s a great reset that will leave the real estate industry fundamentally changed. Some agents will be left behind. Others will emerge stronger than ever.

The question isn’t whether this shift will happen—it’s already underway. The only question is which side of it you’ll be on.

I’ve built my entire career on helping agents navigate market transitions successfully. At Power Unit Coaching, we don’t teach outdated tactics—we provide the modern strategies that actually work in today’s environment through our Power Unit University platform.

The housing market just sent its clearest signal yet. The reset has begun.

Are you ready?